On Saturday, Monday looked very good. Three of my stocks had reason to move when the markets reopened on Monday. Something was bound to happen.

 

In alphabetical order:

    American Superconductor (AMSC) was matched with a rumored buyout of $47. It was in the low $30s. That sounded like a 50% gain.

 

    Dendreon (DNDN) announced, as quietly as possible, two surprise additions to the board, one of which was the CEO of a major partner. A deal, or at least stock action in anticipation, would probably happen soon. Guesses ran through the $30 range into the $60 range.

 

    Microvision (MVIS) had announced two un-named linked partnerships. Speculation about names became a conversation topic. Imagine if Apple was one of them, but then, a case could be made for so many. An announcement must be imminent if the units were going to be sold for this Christmas.

 

I doubted that all three would be busy on Monday, but I also doubted all three would be overlooked. Each story tied these small companies into mature, well-known companies ten times larger. Surely the exposure would only increase demand. If there wasn't any stock dilution, then the limited supply would encourage stocks to rise.

 

A few of us commiserated over the weekend. Two of us changed our Monday morning plans to sit in front of the computers, me with CNBC in the background.

 

What happened? If you're reading this blog, you probably have the skills to pull up the charts. All three stocks started Monday higher than their Friday close. Good. But AMSC and MVIS ended nearly flat or down. DNDN was up, and nicely, but only a dollar or so, not dozens or scores. It touched $30 and retreated to a nice gain, but below $29.

 

I made about two months living expenses. I'm not complaining. But I will admit to disappointment.

 

To mentally prepare for the day, a friend and I calculated the possible portfolio impacts. The potential increases were enough to pay off mortgages, much more than two months living expenses. Such preparation is not wasted. Acting on such a day can mean getting out of debt, or retiring; though possibly with implications for buffers, contingencies, and missed opportunities. It was a weekend of captivating considerations.

 

The phenomenal stock action didn't happen, at least not in this universe on that day. I also felt a little embarrassed to have mentioned the possibilities and to not even have a hint of them happen. If I'd kept my thoughts to myself I'd only be disappointed. I'd included others so I added embarrassment to the mix. Don't worry. I'm not talking about anything tragic here. I've already gotten over it.

 

It is important to prepare for such days, even if they don't bear fruit. Monday's fruit was merely two buds and a blossom. The news, the rumors, the potential portfolio improvements are all still real. The companies are in better shape. Their stocks aren’t required to reflect that.

 

Nothing is for sure, but there's more of a foundation behind each of those stories, and I am better prepared for when they happen. American Superconductor may never get bought out, but I am more confident that it can be worth more than 50% above Friday’s price. It was in that neighborhood in June 2008. Dendreon's deal wasn't announced, but the board members are in place, and Dendreon's management has said that they won't announce a deal until after approval. That probably happens within 6-9 months, which would mean a double event: approval & a partnership deal. Microvision's announcements are as real as ever. They say they are shipping product, and I doubt that major players would keep quiet for much longer. The Christmas season has begun and CES is right behind.

 

So here I sit, typing away at home rather than from a beach on St. Thomas. (Hey I can dream and check ticket prices, eh?) AMSC and DNDN are up moderately. They're heading the right way. MVIS is down a bit. It might stay that way until a leak or a factual announcement. I'll pour another cup of tea, upload this post, and wait. I can manage. After this weekend’s exercise I need a break, and I am more aware of how far or near St. Thomas really is. That's a fun thing to anticipate.