Rumor. Rumor. Rumor. Rumor. Rumor. I repeated rumor five times before passing along a tidbit yesterday. I'd heard a rumor that sparked MVIS to five times its normal trading volume, and could be the start of a long run up for the stock. Good times could be had, but it was a rumor, not a news report. Of course, sometimes that's all we get to work with. Human communication has probably always been that way. Whether in the stock markets or in social fish bowls, buzz gets created before facts are revealed and verified.

 

Want to hear some gossip? Of course not. We're all adults here. Just because he smiled at her, or because someone showed up somewhere they usually avoid, doesn't really mean anything. Some smiles come from good moods and internal jokes. Some chores take us out of our normal routes. But in a community, a group that actually knows each other, anything different can be noticed, heightened, and embellished beyond reason. But then again, sometimes the guesses are correct.

 

This never happened when I lived in suburbia; but, that was because most neighborhoods I inhabited were not communities. They were clusters of houses with common asphalt and concrete connecting commuter's driveways. Privacy was maximized, somewhat by default. With everyone working dawn to dusk, and cars parked in garages, it was hard for anyone to see anything more than traffic. Divorces weren't noticed until the moving sale was announced.

 

Community benefits when people care. And people who care will anticipate, guess what's going on because of a concern for others. Facts and data aren't needed for emotional attachment. Ask any teenager. Remember those days yourself. The upside is people who care. The downside is rumors leading to misunderstanding. One time, after the rumor mill dealt me a bad hand, I was asked what should be done about it. I thought and realized that very little should be done. The rumor hurt, but its core was a compassion within the community. I just happened to be on the wrong side of it. It undoubtedly works the other way too. But at least it was sign that the community was alive, not dull or dead as some lifeless collections I know.

 

The investment community is different, but very similar. It isn't a bunch of disembodied institutions rationally and methodically acting to continually increase wealth. That may be the stereotype, but those institutions are peopled by people with every human's fear and flight responses. The rest of the community, which is probably larger in population but smaller in wealth, are individual investors. Whether it is your job or your money, people in the investment community care about what goes on. Frequently, they don't know any more about what's going on with their investments than neighbors know about why a car door slammed and tires screeched at 2AM. Guesses are made every day. Unfortunately, the investment community isn't populated by people who care about each other. The competitive nature can be ruthless. I'm glad my community is more mutually supportive.

 

Rumors were afoot yesterday that Microvision (MVIS), a perpetually promising yet struggling startup, would be announced in a deal with Apple (APPL). As I type this, MVIS is up 20% from when the rumor hit the internet. It isn't even a new rumor. I suspect that every electronics company with any possibility of even a tangential tie to Apple gets such rumors regularly. But the stock went up, and some friends own it too, so I wanted to pass along the word. I'm not even sure why, except that I know that for all of us, financial success for Microvision would mean fewer financial woes in our own lives. I like to pass along hope.

 

The problem is that I don't like to pass along gossip. Read a message board or a discussion group and look for the facts and data. Very little true analysis is done. That very little analysis is frequently superior to the free reports from the professionals, but those gems reside amongst speculations, extrapolations, fears, hopes, and guesses. There are plenty of conspiracy theorists too. But, here's the thing about conspiracies. They can't all be right. The majority of them are probably wrong. But it is also highly unlikely that they are all wrong. Hundred percent failure rates are extremely uncommon.

 

Being part of a community, electronic, virtual, or real, always entails information flows that are flawed. Complete knowledge, a total assimilation of all information, is probably impossible. (Philosophers probably can prove or disprove that, but I'm not a member of a professional philosopher community.)

 

To only communicate with facts and data would make most people sound like an automaton. To pass along every hint of a tidbit or scrap of a rumor, would devalue the rest of what is said. Somewhere in the middle is a balance. Choose which nuggets to reveal. Acknowledge the rest. Remember that much of it may be no more than a good story.

 

Waiting until the facts and data are available is usually too late. The market has moved and the situation has changed. News rarely shows up in time. So, I listen to rumors, ignore most, consider several, pass along a very few, and occasionally act upon one.

 

Really? She was checking me out? Are you sure? I wonder if I should find out. Nah. She was probably just having a good day.