Writers love angst. Emotional turmoil stirred by uncertainty provides literary avenues to exploit. Besides, delving into emotions and motives is cheaper than researching reality. My happy problem is that I lost my angst.
Even though I am an optimist, and I tend to discuss the positive, I am also aware of an internal pessimism. That inward awareness of potential downsides provides balance and encourages the conservative aspects of my lifestyle and investment strategy. Luckily, I like the resulting self-reliant life, and investing in stock for the long term.
One of my stocks was up a lot on Friday. Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) rose 38% to about $6. I had two competing reactions. In my opinion, the sole news item didn't warrant the rise in the stock price. On the other hand, many amateur and informal analyses suggest a conservative stock price estimate in the $15 to $30 range. Nominal estimates are much higher. In either case, the rise in price reflects an return to more appropriate levels. What should the price be? For the real answer, you'll have to do the work. As a start I recommend reviewing the work chronicled on the DNDN boards of The Motley Fool, Investor Village, and Silicon Investor.
The stock rise had another consequence. I felt relaxed. It took a while for me to identify the cause. Was I on a sugar high? Had my sinuses cleared and my sniffly cold abated? No. Well, maybe a little. But the main cause was the internal realization that a shift had begun. What I felt wasn't a new emotion. What I felt was the retreat of fear and anxiety.
The retreat is not total. I am not euphoric. That took some people by surprise. A few of my friends who know that I have the stock expected me to pop champagne corks and party through the night. But instead of exuberance I felt calmness. Instead of dancing I sat quietly and peacefully.
When Barack Obama became President Obama, several of my friends discretely disclosed that they too felt the weight of responsibility return to their shoulders. It was a good thing, because for eight years we felt powerless and disconnected from democracy. I now recognize that this weekend's reprieve from angst was a similar shift, and only one in a series.
For eight years, personal and world events created a traumatic environment for me. Life maintained a dire tone.
It reached its deepest trough as I passed through the torture of deciding, initiating, and concluding my divorce.
Life improved as I distanced myself from that date, but there was an overcast of global fear, paranoia, and conflict.
Then came Obama. Realizing that he would be president was like returning home to find that squatters had turned a home into a meth lab with holes in the floor and graffiti on the walls. It was good to be back home, but there was lots of work to do cleaning up the house and apologizing to the neighbors.
After the inauguration lots of good things happened, but the improvements weren't reflected in the numbers. The stock market, unemployment, housing stats reinforced pessimism. Hope drifted slightly higher, but it was contained by a persistent cloud deck.
Then came the beginning of March. Some numbers continued to look bad, but improvements appeared, though they were passed off as anomalies by the press. I suspect that one source of the rise in the stock market was precipitated by the expected return of regulations that would limit financial imbalances. Short sellers make money when stocks fall. Their regulations were relaxed about the time the market began to dive. The consideration of re-regulation coincides with the rise in the market. Hope finds a thinning in the overcast and many small stocks begin their rebound.
And then Dendreon asks for a placeholder slot at a medical convention held late in April, and the stock jumps 38%. The main cause of my elevated mood wasn't the stock price rising $1.65. My mood lifted because many people within the investment community returned to trading. The stock's volume was eight times normal. News articles were more likely to dig deeper for more balanced reporting. Traffic on the discussion boards increased.
Watching my portfolio grow by thousands of dollars in a day is welcome. I'm happy for that, but one of the benefits of frequent writing and introspection is that deeper motives become more obvious. My mood lifted because I witnessed thousands of people acting from optimism. They weren't talking. They were doing.
Our world improves as people find hope and opportunities for positive action. I watched a slice and it was filled with thousands of people. It isn't the only slice. I imagine many more and am impressed.
We have lots of work to do. Unemployment rose above 8%, a critical level in my view. Terrorists continue to threaten, which can't be ignored. But, and those who know me knew a "but" was coming along, we are fighting back, not just with hope, but with action. Years of political damage, the devastation to our financial system, and decades of environmental abuse all require active participation at all levels. And, within the last few days, I have come to realize that we are going to do it. we are getting busy, and I smile as I anticipate the defeat of our foes. This time when we win it might mean that cancer loses, non-renewable resources are left in the ground, and the political power of our opponents fades as their fundamental foundations fade.
My angst lifted and I was glad. Imagine the euphoria we can all experience as we succeed.